Weekly Gold Outfit in Fortnite: this week is Solid Gold Lil Uzi Vert · 1 in 1,562,500 per chest
Pirate Token Odds: Your Chance by Chest Count
The pirate token, officially Pirate Shop Access, drops from chests in Fortnite Treasure Hunters. Epic puts the chance at 1 in 137,500 per chest. Enter your chest count below to see what that adds up to.
- 1 in 137,500per chest, normal match Official
- 0.72%chance after 1,000 chests
- 95,308chests for a 50% chance
New to the token? What Pirate Shop Access is and how the 14 days work.
Pirate token odds calculator
Enter the chests you have opened, or plan to open. Chests opened during a Treasure Hours session go in that session's box, because each session had its own rate. If you don't know your count, the chest counter keeps one for you.
The official Fortnite token odds
On Nov 7, 2026, @FortniteStatus posted the chance for each treasure, counted per chest opened in a normal match. Pirate Shop Access is 1 in 137,500 Official. Before that post, every pirate shop token drop rate you could find was a guess.
Two more points come from the same post. The rates have been constant since the season launched, and they do not change by time of day outside Treasure Hours Official.
For scale, the token is about 11 times more likely per chest than the weekly gold outfit (1 in 1,562,500). The gold outfit has its own calculator on the home page, and the other five rates are on the treasure chest rewards page.
Boosted token odds during Treasure Hours
Treasure Hours are timed sessions with a higher rate for some treasures, the token included Official. These are the sessions with a published multiplier so far:
| Session | Token boost | Chance per chest |
|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 7, 2–4 PM ET | 1.5× | about 1 in 91,667 |
| Sat Nov 7, 9–11 PM ET | 2× | about 1 in 68,750 |
A multiplier belongs to the session it was announced for. Epic has said future boosts may be higher and will be announced separately Official, and it has not posted one for any later session, so the calculator has no box for them. Treasure Hours times in your time zone.
Fortnite token chance by chest count
Chance of at least one token at the normal rate, with no Treasure Hours chests:
| Chests opened | Chance of at least one token |
|---|---|
| 100 | 0.073% |
| 1,000 | 0.72% |
| 10,000 | 7.01% |
| 50,000 | 30.5% |
| 95,308 (the 50% mark) | 50.0% |
| 137,500 (as many chests as the "1 in" number) | 63.2% |
The last row is the one people get wrong. "1 in 137,500" does not mean the 137,500th chest pays out. After that many chests your chance is about 63.2%, and more than a third of players would still be empty-handed.
Why you see other numbers
In the first week of the season, figures such as 1 in 700,000 and 1 in 1,000,000 circulated for the rarest chest drops Community. They were estimates from players and leakers, made before Epic published anything. The odds posted on Nov 7 do not support them, so this page uses only the published rate.
The same goes for claims that the rate is secretly raised or lowered at certain times Community. Epic's post says the opposite: constant since launch, apart from Treasure Hours.
How the calculator works
- Independent rolls. Each chest is treated as a separate roll at the published rate, and the misses are multiplied together: 1 − (1 − p₁)n₁ × (1 − p₂)n₂…, where p is the chance per chest and n is the number of chests at that rate. Epic has published the per-chest odds but has not described the roll in more detail.
- A chance, not progress. A result of 5% means 5 in 100 players with your chest count would have a token. It is not a bar that fills up, and your next chest has the same odds as your first.
- No pity system assumed. We have not found any statement from Epic describing a pity system or a guaranteed drop. If Epic describes one, this model will change.
- Qualifying chests only. Epic's wording is "normal match" Official. Battle Royale and Zero Build count Reported. Whether other modes count is unconfirmed Unconfirmed, so only enter chests you are confident about.
Questions
What are the odds of getting a pirate token in Fortnite?
Epic lists Pirate Shop Access at 1 in 137,500 per chest in a normal match. At that rate, 1,000 chests give about a 0.72% chance and 10,000 chests about 7.01%.
How many chests do I need for a 50% chance?
About 95,308 chests at the normal rate. That is a coin flip, not a finish line: half of the players who open that many would still have no token.
Is there a pity system for the pirate token?
We have not found any statement from Epic describing one. The calculator treats every chest as a separate roll, so chests you already opened don't make the next one more likely.
Sources
Labels on this site: Official stated by Epic or @FortniteStatus. Reported several outlets agree, no Epic text seen. Community community-sourced. Unconfirmed nobody credible has said.